Lately, I'm unable to read the forum properly because of consistent Error 503, so I'm just taking this chance to repost my analysis on the whole disasterclass yesterday with team orders
Ferrari's Team Order Drama - Long Thread
AKA - How they failed to get both cars ahead of Antonelli
AKA - "What the --- was even that?!?" Award in 2025 already goes to Ferrari
So, when we look at the Laps 34-57, we see some interesting stuff right away
Ferrari moved Leclerc even though they were both catching Antonelli consistently and even though Leclerc was in lower PU mode (we will see later)
Antonelli and Hamilton were very inconsistent in clean air, while Leclerc was quite consistent in dirty air, even though more often without DRS
Leclerc demonstrated he had a lot of pace in hand, gaining 1s over Antonelli in just 2 laps after 15 laps of pushing in dirty air
If we compare Hamilton's laps in clean air on Mediums vs Leclerc's laps in dirty air on Mediums (1st Stint behind Sainz) we see significant inconsistency in overpass section, while also having inconsistency in S1 with a big mistake on T2 exit on Lap 47
On lap 28, Leclerc demonstrated how much more pace he had in S1 once he got released from Sainz since lap 26 - fun fact, not relevant in this analysis
Now if we compare Leclerc's laps 38 (let HAM pass) and next 2 laps, we see 2 things
On lap 39 he suffered a lot in S1, first lap in dirty air on Hards
On lap 40 he already corrected his line (started going tighter to avoid some part of dirty air), pushed a bit more and ran an equal S1 as in clean air
This means only 1 thing, as he later confirmed in his interview - he wasn't pushing too much in early laps and wanted to get his tyres into right window because there were 20 laps to catch and overtake Antonelli. He also WASN'T using regular PU mode and he was probably saving some fuel as well since he wasn't pushing in high-speed to get his tyres into window properly
WE MUST PUT AN EMPHASIS ON THIS POINT - these two pieces of information are crucial, and Ferrari must have known Leclerc had 3-4 tenths a lap in hand that he can use very quickly. On lap 38 he was 5.0s behind Antonelli when he lifted and lost 1.5s there
Hamilton couldn't pass Leclerc without being let go, even though he had DRS, quicker tyres and higher PU mode. This situation is a sign that without the DRS the car behind does not have significant pace advantage. Often in years before, Sainz was pushing in early laps and got in DRS behind Leclerc only to be dropped a few laps later - which is why Ferrari let them race and didn't let him pass on Team Orders. Albon took Sainz earlier in Stint 1 and they were on same tyres and against Team Orders - this is an example of what it means when a driver has clear pace advantage in the same car
Due to Hamilton's pressure, Ferrari succumbed even though they never did this with Sainz and shouldn't have done it this time either - rightfully
Like I said, already before this point Hamilton didn't have clear pace advantage because he couldn't pass on his own and telling Leclerc to let him go was clearly a mistake. This was done with 18 laps left and Leclerc would clearly be able to catch Antonelli easily because he had 3-4 tenths in hand once he got the required heat cycle in his Hards. Hamilton would have also taken Antonelli by following Leclerc in DRS on straights and carefully saving tyres in corners
All of this is clear even without taking into account how far behind Leclerc Hamilton was in previous 5 races - which really should have been a clear "No, don't do it!" for Ferrari's pit wall
When we compare Hamilton's laps behind and ahead of Leclerc, we can see that
he did lose a lot behind Leclerc in overpass mostly
he did, however, gain even more than that with DRS and higher PU mode than Leclerc on straights
he DIDN'T shoot his tyres for couple of laps behind Leclerc as he was able to go a lot quicker in corners right away
Within 2 laps it was clear as day Hamilton does not have a pace advantage on Mediums and the swap was a mistake - because Leclerc was keeping up in dirty air even without DRS!
Experienced viewers understood this even before the swap - even without live telemetry that teams have. This period was a chance for a decisive swap back that could have given Leclerc a chance to catch and take Antonelli
When we now compare subsequent laps (40, 44 and 51) between these two, we see that Leclerc is able to hold his own in overpass and sometimes even equal Hamilton in this most crucial section
Since Lap 46, Hamilton is back on normal PU mode and by Lap 51 Leclerc is already regularly in DRS and suffering in S1 and overpass section while being too close
Having Hards vs Mediums hampered Leclerc in T8 and T16, costing him valuable traction and he was unable to use DRS to pass Hamilton because of it - this is the opposite of what the situation should have been if Hamilton had a big pace advantage on laps 34-37. He would have been able to use softer tyres and higher PU mode easily if he had a big pace advantage.
Finally, we saw that Leclerc had a mega pace advantage over Antonelli in the final laps and even bigger advantage over Hamilton
In the final lap, he made a smaller dent on Antonelli as he was already suffering a bit in dirty air, being 1.5s behind him in S1. Despite of this, he was very consistent in those final 4 laps in S2 and S3. If this happened 10 laps earlier, as was expected considering this pace advantage - Hamilton would have been able to take Antonelli too easily
Contrary, Hamilton shot his Mediums and was significantly slower than Leclerc all across the lap in the final 7-8 laps
So, the Bad Ferrari Drama in short:
During Laps 34-37 Leclerc was steadily bringing tyres into temperature window, which is important for Hards so they can be pushed to the limit in the next 20 or so laps without dropping off
Additionally, Leclerc used lower PU mode to save fuel and prepare for final 20 laps of chase to get P6, which was easily his
Despite Leclerc taking it easy in early laps, he was still making decent gains on Antonelli, and this would have been even bigger after lap 40 at the latest
Knowing this, Ferrari succumbed to Hamilton's pressure and let him go ahead. Then, in clean air
Hamilton had to use lower PU mode for a few laps, after pushing early in the stint to keep up with Leclerc
Hamilton pushed as much as he could in clean air, but was unable to shake off Leclerc or make big gains on Antonelli
Inconsistent laps in clean air only confirmed that Hamilton is far from being comfortable in Ferrari at the moment
My Final Verdict in 4 points:
Ferrari made a terrible mistake to underestimate Leclerc's pace, even though they must have had the data available to them
Ferrari must stop underestimating their faster driver at the moment or they will keep losing points and positions all season
Ferrari DID make the right call to wait until lap 38 to swap initially because otherwise Sainz would have used his chance and overtaken Leclerc while Hamilton was going through
Ferrari must accept that Hamilton is not able to get comfortable with SF25 at the moment and stop pandering him or they will keep losing points and positions all season
Ferrari's Team Order Drama - Long Thread
Ferrari moved Leclerc even though they were both catching Antonelli consistently and even though Leclerc was in lower PU mode (we will see later)