2025 Monaco Grand Prix - Monte Carlo, May 23 - 25

[venkyhere]

One thing is guaranteed : this race is going to be the biggest headscratcher for the strategy team and their human/AI written 'scenario' algorithms, to come up with a finite set (3 or atmost 4) 'when to pit plans' - A,B.C,D, to be agreed upon between the engineering and the drivers, because the mandatory 2nd stop is a proper 'spanner in the works' w.r.t all their historic data bank they have on this track.

This 2nd stop has massively increased the probability share of 'luck' (weather, what other teams are doing etc) in the whole game. On top of all this, there will be crashes, yellow flags etc which can throw out all 'plans' and the 'thinking on one's feet' is going to be massively under pressure, because of the small laptime.

Overall, the humongous impact of 'quali' order is less severe, with the 2nd stop.
Expecting a lot of expletives on driver team radios.

[f1isgood]

One thing is guaranteed : this race is going to be the biggest headscratcher for the strategy team and their human/AI written 'scenario' algorithms, to come up with a finite set (3 or atmost 4) 'when to pit plans' - A,B.C,D, to be agreed upon between the engineering and the drivers, because the mandatory 2nd stop is a proper 'spanner in the works' w.r.t all their historic data bank they have on this track.

This 2nd stop has massively increased the probability share of 'luck' (weather, what other teams are doing etc) in the whole game. On top of all this, there will be crashes, yellow flags etc which can throw out all 'plans' and the 'thinking on one's feet' is going to be massively under pressure, because of the small laptime.

Overall, the humongous impact of 'quali' order is less severe, with the 2nd stop.
Expecting a lot of expletives on driver team radios.

That was always the intention, now wasn't it.

[Farnborough]

Any of the teams could use the lowest qualifying driver to stay out and naturally interfere with an earlier stopping lead driver.

Except .... McL, that have two dogs in the fight for WDC, making it harder for them to impose.

[SirBastianVettel]

Any of the teams could use the lowest qualifying driver to stay out and naturally interfere with an earlier stopping lead driver.

Oh man, didn’t think of that option yet, this race is going to be a total shitshow.

[Farnborough]

Any of the teams could use the lowest qualifying driver to stay out and naturally interfere with an earlier stopping lead driver.

Oh man, didn’t think of that option yet, this race is going to be a total shitshow.

Also, think about it as effectively there'd be no blue flag as it would be for position held in that order. As we've seen before, it can really bottle things up with almost nil chance of passing, which could ruin another's strategy.

[Paa]

I think there is a rule, that you need to run the tire for one lap.
But I do not see where you are going with the strategy of an early stop. Everyone is going out on fresh tires, so you can not undercut anything with a 1st lap stop. That only makes sense for completely out of position cars like Tsunoda.
A normal competing car needs to run at least half a normal stint length to gamble on an early stop. And this is what I would expect: Just a very early stop on a normal 2 stop strategy.

Early pit would work if race will be traditional fashioned. Meaning that the guy in front runs a really slow pace to keep the pack together, defending from the undercut. This is how most races went in recent past and this would make early stop viable as the early stopper can easily catch up to the train.

It is difficult to judge if mandated 2 stops would change this logic? Maybe it will make sense for front runners now to go max pace exactly to make enough space for themselves for the stops and tyre wear will be no concern with 2 stops.
If pack will go max pace then early stoppers are screwed.

Of course this is without SC/RF which will inevitably come at some point.
I guess in reality, SC/RF will dictate the stops.

[r85]

I don't think Red Bull or Mclaren will win this race. They have to be more conservative in their strategies. The rest are more likely to gamble because they have nothing to lose. So there will be 2 races. One between PIA, NOR, VER making sure they cover off one another in the pits to maintain track position/pts advantage, and another race between that more conservative group and everyone else who can afford to gamble.

I think it's a little unprecedented to mandate 2 stops and make the race even more of a lottery, but we're past the point of no return.

Can always bet on Mercedes and Russell to do an unhinged and wild strategy...

[Sergej]

Any of the teams could use the lowest qualifying driver to stay out and naturally interfere with an earlier stopping lead driver.

Oh man, didn’t think of that option yet, this race is going to be a total shitshow.

Also, think about it as effectively there'd be no blue flag as it would be for position held in that order. As we've seen before, it can really bottle things up with almost nil chance of passing, which could ruin another's strategy.

Bernoldi-Coulthard reloaded.

[basti313]

I still do not see how you can play games.
Let us assume there is a real 2 stop race, no early red flag or SC. Then the idea of the 2 stopper is great. If they go full pace, we can see a split not as big as 22 in the wet, but certainly above 21 where Verstappen was taking it easy.
Back then P1 split a full pitstop gap down to P7 within 15 laps. So anyone out of position will just be out of the game. Early stops just make it worse.
But this also means we might see a flat out race again, something not seen in the dry since 2013 here? At least till the second stop. Frontrunners need to run fast to build gaps to stop into.

[AR3-GP]

Will red flag tire changes count? If not, then getting both stops in before a red flag would be important. If it's later in the race, then there's not enough time to try and gap the field before the final stop. There's no real strategy that a team can settle on until after qualifying.

[_cerber1]

Any of the teams could use the lowest qualifying driver to stay out and naturally interfere with an earlier stopping lead driver.

Except .... McL, that have two dogs in the fight for WDC, making it harder for them to impose.

Red Bull have a huge range of options and I'm sure they are working on it. Don't be surprised if Verstappen is the lucky winner.

[kalinka]

If you have a massive tyre life and kerb-riding advantage (let's say McL), and you can qualify in front , then there's actually an alternate strategy we saw in the 90s sometimes...Front runner pushes like hell and makes a 20+ sec advantage - maybe even a full pitstop worth of time, then pits and comes out in 2nd to 4th place somewhere...then just waits for the guys in front to pit and then push again. But then there's the 2nd pitstop, so still you have to have some luck.

[venkyhere]

If Gasly finds himself in the front just as the leaders have pitted for their 2nd stop, and Colapinto is still somewhere in the race, we know what radio message he will get from Flavio.

[erudite450]

I have watched this sport long enough to know that chaos never occurs when it's expected. This is going to be a straightforward race for the frontrunners. They will pull away in the front creating enough gap to drop into when they pit.

[Paa]

I have watched this sport long enough to know that chaos never occurs when it's expected. This is going to be a straightforward race for the frontrunners. They will pull away in the front creating enough gap to drop into when they pit.

But now that you set this expectation, aren't we back for a good chaos race?