http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsp ... 629477.stm
It is pure speculation as to what would have happened if it had been a dry race. I'm not interested in the speculation but he does offer a way to turn speculation in to a prediction that could be tested and is therefore falsifiable and a bit more scientific.
So far so much speculation. Here's the science bit. I noticed that for the last few years Williams have provided a pre-race analysis of each track which they use to get a benchmark level for the amount of downforce to run. It was posted by Tomba on the F1 Technical website and I'm sure included some interesting stats about the track.Differences in how various cars and drivers use their rubber are exaggerated here [Shanghai]. These patterns will be a good indicator, too, for how things might stack up in Barcelona - a track which, if anything, is even tougher for the tyres.
Of the top cars, the Red Bull was taking the most out of its tyres, the Ferrari was by far the kindest. One McLaren - Jenson Button's - was almost as good as the Ferrari in its tyre usage; Lewis Hamilton's car was almost as bad as the Red Bulls.
The soft compound tyre being used as the option in Shanghai was much faster than the hard, but also much more delicate.
From the wear rates Bridgestone was seeing in the practice sessions, it was unlikely to have lasted much more than 15 laps on the most aggressive usage, with a possibility of up to 30 laps for cars [and or drivers] that were gentler on it.
In other words the Ferrari was likely to have been able to use the faster tyre for up to twice as long as the Red Bull, had the race been dry.
Does anybody have enough knowledge to make a database of turn radii (tightness), average cornering speed and tarmac abrasiveness to arrive at a value for estimated tyre wear for each circuit. Bridgestone must do this so they can work out which compounds to bring to each race. Combine this information with the compounds available for the weekend to see if tyre wear is marginal for a particular race.
What we want to see if there is any correlation between cars and driver finishing position and races where tyre wear is a bigger issue than normal (it may always be marginal for all I know). A more accurate indicator is the difference between qualifying position and finish position and this may be influenced (but probably not the dominant influence) by the difference in qualifying pace and race pace, which must have something to do with how you manage your tyres on short and long runs.
Would anybody want to try and estimate turn radii, average cornering speed, tarmac type (abrasive->smooth) for any of the circuits on the calendar? And is this sufficient data to estimate tyre wear?
I guess I'm going to be told I'm being far too simplistic but you've got to start somewhere and I thought this would be preferable to another circuit of the YingYang track which is fun to watch until you realise nobody brought a chequered flag to declare a winner.
Much Thanks,
Dave
