PlatinumZealot wrote: ↑29 Sep 2018, 15:34
Vettel actually doesn't look that worried. He seems in good spirits actaully. I think Ferrari have a trick up their sleeves...
I think Vettel has kissed this championship good bye to be honest. The only "trick" they'd have from my view, is if they lead from lap1 on, which to be fair, I think there's a reasonably high chance of that happening, but considering their pace in the last sector, I think they'd be quite vulnerable to a DRS pass. Given they are also probably struggling more than Mercedes on tire deg, I think makes them vulnerable to being passed on strategy too.
Considering this, I think the probability of both Mercedes finishing ahead of both Ferraris is IMO higher than Vettel finishing ahead of Hamilton.
I'd also say, given how much Ferrari seems to be off the pace, they must be delighted that the worst they will most likely end up finishing (bar a DNF) must be 3rd and 4th, because their only real competitor is RedBull who is starting all the way from the back.
Looking forward to the race, I'm actually wondering if the top10 will just try to run as long as possible on the Ultras they are starting on. If a safety car hits and there's a gap, go onto Softs for the remainder of the race. If they run long, they may be able to put on a HS for the last stint, though I am not sure if they kept any new ones (given they used a few in Q1 (?), Q2 (1) and Q3 (2)) for the race. Going Softs at any point in the race IMO could make you suspect to being overcut.
If Mercedes end up being 1-2 after the first lap, I predict a fairly "boring" and controlled race by Mercedes.
@Shrieker; Did you understand what I was writing? Vettel is the one who is 40 points behind. He has to drive aggressive, yes, because he has little to lose, but he also has everything to lose, if he gets into another clash where he loses out, like in Monza. What this means is that Hamilton can drive aggressive vs. Vettel. If they touch and both crash, it's in Hamiltons advantage, since the gap stays the same, but with less races remaining. So it's more important for Vettel not to crash or be involved in incidents vs. Hamilton. This means that in any straight battle between the two, Hamilton can afford to be more aggressive (under the notion, if they touch/crash, make sure it's damaging to both). In other words, if I were Vettel, I'd try to keep my nose clean and avoid incidents with Hamilton. The championship could still shift, if there's a reliability issue for Hamilton in the next 6 events.
