f1316 wrote: ↑
Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:05 am
Ok but answer me this: when was the last time we had more than one stop in a race (other than for safety cars)?
I think Ferrari’s strategy is predicated on the fact that one set of mediums is plenty - particularly if they can qualify on the mid tyre, as has often been the case - and so their main focus has been to set the car up for pole and hence track position. The RB strategy from Vettel’s championship years, you might say
Let me illustrate:
Mercedes have: M , S , SS 
Ferrari have: M , S , SS 
This means that Ferrari have no way to test the Medium tire during practice to see if it is any good and how it performs. They either don't run it at all and save it for the race or they use it and then it's gone. If they don't run it, they may find themselves in a race situation where they have no idea if they should use it or not, because they have no idea how it performs.
Mercedes on the other hand, will be able to test them and keep a set for the race if they want.
Now lets look at the soft tires. Mercedes have 4 for each of their drivers, Ferrari only 2. Assuming both teams want to have one fresh set available for the race, Mercedes have 3 left for practice and qualifying, Ferrari only one per car. Will they test the tire during practice? Or keep it for qualifying?
Either way, Ferrari have two cars each, so they can test the medium tires on one of their cars (they probably will) and save it on the other, but it's still a gamble and for the driver that tests it, the tire is lost for the race.
Ferrari have obviously gambled on a 1-stop race, qualifying on the SS and then going onto the S tire. Fair enough. It most likely will be the most likeliest outcome.
But what will they do if a safety car hits 1/3rd of the race and it's too early to put on the S tire? Will they have a Medium tire available? Will it be any good? Will they know that, if they haven't done any test runs on it to gather data? Mercedes will have and will know exactly what to expect and what to do. However, on the contrary, Mercedes (obviously) will have gotten less running from practice on the SS, so perhaps they will have less data to find the perfect qualifying set-up.