Restomaniac wrote: ↑
Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:36 pm
Manoah2u wrote: ↑
Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:20 pm
Not even close.
It needs to be remembered that Hamilton has never won a race after securing the title and Bottas has currently been miles off.
That hardly matters.
Assuming Ferrari grabs the top steps of the podium, Mercedes needs 32 points to claim the WCC.
If one Ferrari DNFs and they still grab maximum points(one win and a 1-2), Mercedes needs 14 points to claim the WDC. So even if Mercedes would DNF with one car and finish sixth in both races, they claim the WCC.
If Mercedes wins in Brazil or Abu Dabhi, they win the WCC.
If Mercedes outscores Ferrari in Brazil or Abu Dabhi, they win the WCC.
To claim the WCC, Mercedes needs to average 16 points in the last two races, which is ~14 points less than their current average.
For Ferrari to win the WCC, they at least need 56 points, this is equal to their average this year. Assuming Mercedes scores points, in whatever position, Ferrari needs to score over their average.
So knowing this, Ferrari winning the WCC is incredibly unlikely, as Mercedes needs to score far under their average to win the title. Being the third fastest team in both races is enough to claim the title.