Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

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Big Tea
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Big Tea » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:26 pm

djos wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:02 pm
Big Tea wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:33 pm
djos wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:25 pm


If ppl charge them at home overnight then this is a total non issue - except for long drives interstate.
But what % of owners would have charging capability at home? Especially in cities where there are many families per building and limited frontage/parking yard. Even with a drive, if a family has more than one car there is the 'problem'
of trailing leads, which do not mix with children and dogs.

We have just the one car now, but I an still unable to get within 20 feet of the house, so I either have to get a charge point put in the drive or trail the wire. (it is not practical to bring the drive closer)

If the option is there to charge at work, that helps, but a high %of people will have neither choice, so unless charge times drop to less than 10 min, it is not 'convenient enough' to change.

Lots of outlets in public parking would fix the problem, but that would depend on committees believing they will get their money back after installation, maintenance and the cost of power. I am doubtful many will make that jump for some time.
For those in apartments, the building owner could easily add electric chargers to the parking spots and link the metering to each apartment.

For folk like yourself the council's would install road side chargers and use them as an additional revenue source.

Then there's Australia and America, most of us living in the suburbs have car garages so that's easy.
The large apartment blocks can have 20-30- -50 stories for residents, and still the same footprint. This is often made worse by shops and business on the first floor and needing service access so the room is very limited.

Council would not provide a charger in my property, in fact I would not be surprised if I needed planning permission of some sort to be allowed to do it as it would no doubt put more load on the whole street if many people did it and supplied it of the domestic wiring.

A garage or even a purposes built off road bay would be ideal, but again (in UK at least) there is just not enough 'road side'

This is why I prefer hybrid to plug in, even if they develop a small capacity engine that only charges the battery. Then again, they will not want the engine running when the car is parked.

There could be some sort of 'delivery service' where a vehicle with a large charger comes along at nigh and charges my car and some of my neighbors then moves along to the next street. Beam charging from space? We can laugh now, but I would not bet too much against something futuristic just cropping up out of nowhere. 100 years ago who would have thought we would all have phones cameras and computers in our pocket, let alone all in the same box in our pocket
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AJI
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by AJI » Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:57 pm

Nonserviam85 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:12 pm
djos wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:25 pm
Big Tea wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:06 pm


I agree with the guy when he says "I think there will be so many great new all-electric vehicle options on the market over the next 5 years, that no one will want to buy a non-electric vehicle at some point between 2020 and 2025."
So the reduction will not be a big deal. Also, it is 'only' Co2 that will be affected, so some will be 're-tuning' the output rather than reducing the whole slice.

The biggest restriction on Electric cars will still be having somewhere to plug them in. I will seriously look at a hybrid next time, but not remotely interested in a plug-in as things stand.
If ppl charge them at home overnight then this is a total non issue - except for long drives interstate.
This is the greatest risk actually, everyone charging at the same time! The Grids will collapse!
Indeed. How is this massive extra requirement for electricity distributed through a grid that can barely cope at the moment?
I can see a push for a 'Grid Demand Tax' for PEV owners in our future. Then there's the extra electricity generation demands...

djos
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by djos » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:23 pm

AJI wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:57 pm
Nonserviam85 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:12 pm
djos wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:25 pm


If ppl charge them at home overnight then this is a total non issue - except for long drives interstate.
This is the greatest risk actually, everyone charging at the same time! The Grids will collapse!
Indeed. How is this massive extra requirement for electricity distributed through a grid that can barely cope at the moment?
I can see a push for a 'Grid Demand Tax' for PEV owners in our future. Then there's the extra electricity generation demands...
Oh rubbish, you guys are assuming everyone needs to pump 60-100 kWh's into their car every night when this is not the case. Most folk drive no more than 60 kms per day so that's ~10 kWh's per vehicle or likely much less for those who drive to the local railway station and back every day.

The grid will evolve to meet demand, just as it always has.

Ps you know why 11 pm to 7am is called off peak right? Cause heavy industry etc aren't active leaving plenty of power for EV's to top up their charge.
The impossible often has a kind of integrity which the merely improbable lacks.

AJI
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by AJI » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:14 pm

djos wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:23 pm
AJI wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:57 pm
Nonserviam85 wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:12 pm


This is the greatest risk actually, everyone charging at the same time! The Grids will collapse!
Indeed. How is this massive extra requirement for electricity distributed through a grid that can barely cope at the moment?
I can see a push for a 'Grid Demand Tax' for PEV owners in our future. Then there's the extra electricity generation demands...
Oh rubbish, you guys are assuming everyone needs to pump 60-100 kWh's into their car every night when this is not the case. Most folk drive no more than 60 kms per day so that's ~10 kWh's per vehicle or likely much less for those who drive to the local railway station and back every day.

The grid will evolve to meet demand, just as it always has.

Ps you know why 11 pm to 7am is called off peak right? Cause heavy industry etc aren't active leaving plenty of power for EV's to top up their charge.
I think you're vastly underestimating the demands on the grid, at least in Australia.
Let's go with your low 10kWh per vehicle per day number. That's ~50% extra grid demand per household for anyone with a PEV or PHEV. Want 2 EV's? Double it.
Assuming we alter the infrastructure to accommodate a much higher line voltage to residences, the power still has to come from somewhere...

Big Tea
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Big Tea » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:19 pm

AJI wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:14 pm
djos wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:23 pm
AJI wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 9:57 pm

Indeed. How is this massive extra requirement for electricity distributed through a grid that can barely cope at the moment?
I can see a push for a 'Grid Demand Tax' for PEV owners in our future. Then there's the extra electricity generation demands...
Oh rubbish, you guys are assuming everyone needs to pump 60-100 kWh's into their car every night when this is not the case. Most folk drive no more than 60 kms per day so that's ~10 kWh's per vehicle or likely much less for those who drive to the local railway station and back every day.

The grid will evolve to meet demand, just as it always has.

Ps you know why 11 pm to 7am is called off peak right? Cause heavy industry etc aren't active leaving plenty of power for EV's to top up their charge.
I think you're vastly underestimating the demands on the grid, at least in Australia.
Let's go with your low 10kWh per vehicle per day number. That's ~50% extra grid demand per household for anyone with a PEV or PHEV. Want 2 EV's? Double it.
Assuming we alter the infrastructure to accommodate a much higher line voltage to residences, the power still has to come from somewhere...
I would imagine that, particularly in Australia and other bright climates, there would probably be a shift in when the car would charge, with people utilizing the daylight hours for solar charging rather than late night energy.
If you know a good slice of your cars running costs can be recovered it is more attractive to spend the up-front cost of PV.

(unless it ends up like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkeu07U3060 )
One test is worth a thousand expert opinions

djos
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by djos » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:31 pm

AJI wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:14 pm
I think you're vastly underestimating the demands on the grid, at least in Australia.
Let's go with your low 10kWh per vehicle per day number. That's ~50% extra grid demand per household for anyone with a PEV or PHEV. Want 2 EV's? Double it.
Assuming we alter the infrastructure to accommodate a much higher line voltage to residences, the power still has to come from somewhere...
I dont think I am, I've looked through the AEMO data for our 3 biggest states and peak power draw (recently) is

NSW:
during the day ~9,500 MW vs
off-peak low of ~6,400MW.

VIC:
during the day 5,800 MW
off-peak low of ~3,900 MW

QLD:
during the day 8,400 MW
off-peak low of ~5,800 MW

Lets not forget, the power grids are not static, they are getting upgraded all the time.
The impossible often has a kind of integrity which the merely improbable lacks.

AJI
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by AJI » Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:49 pm

djos wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:31 pm
AJI wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:14 pm
I think you're vastly underestimating the demands on the grid, at least in Australia.
Let's go with your low 10kWh per vehicle per day number. That's ~50% extra grid demand per household for anyone with a PEV or PHEV. Want 2 EV's? Double it.
Assuming we alter the infrastructure to accommodate a much higher line voltage to residences, the power still has to come from somewhere...
I dont think I am, I've looked through the AEMO data for our 3 biggest states and peak power draw (recently) is

NSW:
during the day ~9,500 MW vs
off-peak low of ~6,400MW.

VIC:
during the day 5,800 MW
off-peak low of ~3,900 MW

QLD:
during the day 8,400 MW
off-peak low of ~5,800 MW

Lets not forget, the power grids are not static, they are getting upgraded all the time.
So, basically we'd be at full capacity with your numbers if we all had EV's.

At my residence I am currently only allowed to feed 5kW into the grid. Reason given, 'because the grid can't handle it'.
At my business I am currently only allowed to feed 30kW into the grid. Reason, see above.

There was talk many years ago of shifting Australia from 240v to 230v. I'll give you one guess as to why it couldn't happen.

djos
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by djos » Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:10 am

AJI wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:49 pm
djos wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:31 pm
AJI wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:14 pm
I think you're vastly underestimating the demands on the grid, at least in Australia.
Let's go with your low 10kWh per vehicle per day number. That's ~50% extra grid demand per household for anyone with a PEV or PHEV. Want 2 EV's? Double it.
Assuming we alter the infrastructure to accommodate a much higher line voltage to residences, the power still has to come from somewhere...
I dont think I am, I've looked through the AEMO data for our 3 biggest states and peak power draw (recently) is

NSW:
during the day ~9,500 MW vs
off-peak low of ~6,400MW.

VIC:
during the day 5,800 MW
off-peak low of ~3,900 MW

QLD:
during the day 8,400 MW
off-peak low of ~5,800 MW

Lets not forget, the power grids are not static, they are getting upgraded all the time.
So, basically we'd be at full capacity with your numbers if we all had EV's.

At my residence I am currently only allowed to feed 5kW into the grid. Reason given, 'because the grid can't handle it'.
At my business I am currently only allowed to feed 30kW into the grid. Reason, see above.

There was talk many years ago of shifting Australia from 240v to 230v. I'll give you one guess as to why it couldn't happen.
230v is already the nominal standard voltage in Australia.

You guys are forgetting about the massive transformation happening right now, residential solar pentetration in Australia has passed 25% and batteries to load shift are the next big wave and will make a huge difference in removing load from the grid.
Last edited by djos on Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
The impossible often has a kind of integrity which the merely improbable lacks.

subcritical71
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by subcritical71 » Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:19 am

AJI wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:49 pm

So, basically we'd be at full capacity with your numbers if we all had EV's.

At my residence I am currently only allowed to feed 5kW into the grid. Reason given, 'because the grid can't handle it'.
At my business I am currently only allowed to feed 30kW into the grid. Reason, see above.

There was talk many years ago of shifting Australia from 240v to 230v. I'll give you one guess as to why it couldn't happen.
The reason, 'grid can't handle it' is not saying that the grid cannot handle the MW being thrown at it. All grids need to have a balance and some rotating mass behind it which maintains the frequency. This is normally left to rather large turbines or synchronous condensers. If you have too much of the mix being from, for example, solar which has little to no frequency response capabilities large enough to affect the grid as a whole the grid will become unstable and that is when the bad things like blackouts start happening.

djos
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by djos » Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:34 am

subcritical71 wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:19 am
AJI wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:49 pm

So, basically we'd be at full capacity with your numbers if we all had EV's.

At my residence I am currently only allowed to feed 5kW into the grid. Reason given, 'because the grid can't handle it'.
At my business I am currently only allowed to feed 30kW into the grid. Reason, see above.

There was talk many years ago of shifting Australia from 240v to 230v. I'll give you one guess as to why it couldn't happen.
The reason, 'grid can't handle it' is not saying that the grid cannot handle the MW being thrown at it. All grids need to have a balance and some rotating mass behind it which maintains the frequency. This is normally left to rather large turbines or synchronous condensers. If you have too much of the mix being from, for example, solar which has little to no frequency response capabilities large enough to affect the grid as a whole the grid will become unstable and that is when the bad things like blackouts start happening.
Batteries do it better and cheaper.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.bus ... 018-10/amp
The impossible often has a kind of integrity which the merely improbable lacks.

Cold Fussion
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Cold Fussion » Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:26 am

Let's say that tomorrow we wake up and aliens have installed a comprehensive hydrogen based infrastructure, would we see hydrogen fuel battery hybrids? Say a 20kW/hr battery for ~100km of battery range and maybe a 2-5kg tank of liquid hydrogen or very high pressure tank (700-1000 bar or something). Such a system should be a fair chunk lighter than a 100 kW/hr battery car while having similar range of around 500km. Does the hydrogen fuel cell as a range extender makes sense as an architecture?

djos
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by djos » Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:12 am

Cold Fussion wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:26 am
Let's say that tomorrow we wake up and aliens have installed a comprehensive hydrogen based infrastructure, would we see hydrogen fuel battery hybrids? Say a 20kW/hr battery for ~100km of battery range and maybe a 2-5kg tank of liquid hydrogen or very high pressure tank (700-1000 bar or something). Such a system should be a fair chunk lighter than a 100 kW/hr battery car while having similar range of around 500km. Does the hydrogen fuel cell as a range extender makes sense as an architecture?
From everything I've read and watched - BEV's have a dramatically more efficient energy lifecycle than HEV's.

Two Bit Divici on youtube has a really good video covering the topic as does "Real Engineering":

https://youtu.be/k7JRIUPhSJE

https://youtu.be/f7MzFfuNOtY
The impossible often has a kind of integrity which the merely improbable lacks.

loner
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by loner » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:11 am

you missed the point when he said
Let's say that tomorrow we wake up and aliens have installed a comprehensive hydrogen based infrastructure
its how humans use hydrogen is the problem humans can't develop hydrogen yet .. around 90% of sun is hydrogen enough said.
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Cold Fussion
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by Cold Fussion » Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:54 am

djos wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:12 am
Cold Fussion wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:26 am
Let's say that tomorrow we wake up and aliens have installed a comprehensive hydrogen based infrastructure, would we see hydrogen fuel battery hybrids? Say a 20kW/hr battery for ~100km of battery range and maybe a 2-5kg tank of liquid hydrogen or very high pressure tank (700-1000 bar or something). Such a system should be a fair chunk lighter than a 100 kW/hr battery car while having similar range of around 500km. Does the hydrogen fuel cell as a range extender makes sense as an architecture?
From everything I've read and watched - BEV's have a dramatically more efficient energy lifecycle than HEV's.

Two Bit Divici on youtube has a really good video covering the topic as does "Real Engineering":

https://youtu.be/k7JRIUPhSJE

https://youtu.be/f7MzFfuNOtY
Those videos don't really apply to the situation that I have described. Sure with today's hydrogen economy it is a complete non-starter, and I very much doubt that even if the right investment were to start today the hydrogen economy would be in a position in 10 years to compete with BEV's until the complete 'BEV-fication' of new cars. Currently cars exist in a paradigm where consumers where they average <50km a day but want/need a car capable of traversing 500km. A hydrogen fuel cell range extender eliminates that problem while significantly reducing the battery cost and mass. I am unsure how the hydrogen fuel cell paraphernalia adds back into that equation though.

etusch
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Re: Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

Post by etusch » Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:14 am

This is a question out of flow of the topic. I also don't know if this is discussed before.
I knew that Tesla had tested its car with transmission and without transmission then decided to make it direct drive. This cause longer city milage but shorter highway milage due to high rev. I know that e motor produce same torq from zero. So my question is;
Won't it be better to have a high speed cruiseing gear for getting longer milage( if it helps, lower rev with same torq).
I mean when you accelerate from 0 to 140 km or from 80 to 140 same direct drive but when you decide to set a stable speed , a gear for 2 or 3 gear.