[ 2020 ] AMG Mercedes F1 Team - Mercedes

[SmallSoldier]

Agreed. Astute call.

I can't think of a better time to promote a junior driver and Mercedes have ignored it. I thought they were cleverer than that. He'll be 31 later this month, so 34+(?) when Hamilton leaves? I'm sure their rivals will be shaking in their boots at the idea of a physically declining Bottas leading the fight when Verstappen and Leclerc will be in their mid-twenties with half-a-decade of experience under their belts.

I don’t think it’s a great time to promote a driver, Russell which is probably the only one to be in that list still only has one complete season under his belt, he is still developing and maturing as a driver... With Hamilton probably locked in for at least 3 more years, there’s no need to rush Russell, especially next season where the regulations/cars will almost be the same.

This season and next at Williams will be good for George and might be more prepared to make the jump in 2022 with the new set of regulations.

Ah, but that season of regs lock in is why it's such a good time. Mercedes are miles ahead of everyone and will remain so next season. That means that a new driver can under-perform quite happily next year with no negative consequences, they'll get easy podiums (even wins if Hamilton has a mishap) and the intense pressure that would accompany such a shift will be lessened. It also means that the design for the post-2021 season will be able to incorporate the existence of that new driver into its make up and gives the driver a year of experience and relationship building within the team before that's properly tested.

Not promoting means...Bottas/Russell in the 2023 (?) season? Bottas will be mid-thirties (older than Hulkenburg & Vettel are now) and Russell will have to spend a year driving a car that wasn't designed for him, in a team and car concept with which he is unfamiliar (e.g. how long did it take Ricciardo to get used to the different balance and brakes of the Renault), whilst Red Bull and Ferrari (et al) have had three years to close the gap.

Of the two scenarios, which sounds like the best option for integrating a new driver without weakening the team sufficiently for championships to be threatened?

Mercedes hasn’t achieved as much as they have so far by gambling... Bottas is a proven commodity for them, Russell isn’t (great prospect of course, but unluckily he has been driving a back marker car against “questionable” team mates to properly evaluate his performance).

With the rules changing for 2022, Mercedes doesn’t have any guarantees that they will be at the front of the grid, therefore 2021 is their last huge chance for another consecutive championship... Why would you change the formula that so far has worked so well? There is no reason to do it.

Russell could do a similar job to Bottas next season and help them ensure another WCC, nevertheless there is also the potential for a big gap between Hamilton and Russell which could be harming for George... Makes me think a bit of Vandoorne or Gasly, who both seem like great prospects (Gasly beat his team mates the way that George is doing it), but they were so far from their more seasoned/experienced team mates that unluckily hurt them more than helped been promoted so early into their careers.

If Russell is promoted in 2022, he will still have Hamilton as a team mate, but he will be more experienced and therefore it will be an easier transition... I don’t know where the Bottas / Russell in 2023 question or concern comes from... Most probably when Hamilton decides to call it quits, Mercedes will look for either a great #2 for Russell (if he proves himself in 2022) or a seasoned WDC material driver to replace Hamilton (Max for example)

If Mercedes has renewed Bottas for 2021 instead of pulling Russell, I’m sure they see more potential negatives than positives... They have more information to evaluate that decision than every single fan out there claiming for Russell to take the seat and most probably than not have put a lot more thought process into it also, are questioning now without any actual data and only our perception of how good a driver is their decision?

Finally... The trend in the last 5 years to promote very young inexperienced drivers to top teams seems to have created an expectation that someone deserves or has to be in a top seat without proving themselves in the sport... Not every driver is a Max Verstappen, who spend a season and a half at Toro Rosso (and probably would have been there at least 2 seasons if not for Kvyat having a terrible beginning of the season in 2016 and potentially even 3 seasons depending on how well RIC and KVY performed that season... Yes, we have Leclerc arguably doing great at Ferrari and Norris at Mclaren (although, unluckily Mclaren isn’t a top team today)... I guess I’m just against the expectation that every young driver that shows promise automatically deserves a seat in a top team.


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[Wynters]

With the rules changing for 2022, Mercedes doesn’t have any guarantees that they will be at the front of the grid, therefore 2021 is their last huge chance for another consecutive championship... Why would you change the formula that so far has worked so well? There is no reason to do it.

Do you think Mercedes would lose the championship if, next year, Latifi drove instead of Bottas? Mercedes managed to win it in 2018, a season where Bottas finished fifth in the WDC.

Fifth

I suggest that the engineering lead Mercedes is likely to have next season will be larger than that they (may or may not have) enjoyed in the 2018 season. If that is the case, then even if they promote a driver, their trophies would be under no threat next season and they would be significantly stronger in the following seasons, when they will likely need that strength.

If Russell is promoted in 2022, he will still have Hamilton as a team mate, but he will be more experienced and therefore it will be an easier transition... I don’t know where the Bottas / Russell in 2023 question or concern comes from... Most probably when Hamilton decides to call it quits, Mercedes will look for either a great #2 for Russell (if he proves himself in 2022) or a seasoned WDC material driver to replace Hamilton (Max for example)

Correct on the reason for my (very speculative) choice of timing.

I agree that Russell / Ocon* having more experience is better than having less experience.

However, I think all the other reasons I laid out would more than trump that single advantage. I appreciate how subjective that is though.

I guess I’m just against the expectation that every young driver that shows promise automatically deserves a seat in a top team.

I entirely agree. Regarding the concepts of Knowledge and experience as having no signifcant value is the antithesis of both observable performance and the conclusions of successful sports people across the various disciplines.

*I mention Ocon because he would have been my choice for the seat next year, precisely because of the greater experience, the better comparative metrics (and his excellent performances in the rain).

[Schuttelberg]

I'm dead certain Bottas would not have won the championship in 2018 and perhaps even in 2017.

Agreed.

I am dead certain it will be Bottas

Astute call.

I can't think of a better time to promote a junior driver and Mercedes have ignored it. I thought they were cleverer than that. He'll be 31 later this month, so 34+(?) when Hamilton leaves? I'm sure their rivals will be shaking in their boots at the idea of a physically declining Bottas leading the fight when Verstappen and Leclerc will be in their mid-twenties with half-a-decade of experience under their belts.

I don’t think it’s a great time to promote a driver, Russell which is probably the only one to be in that list still only has one complete season under his belt, he is still developing and maturing as a driver... With Hamilton probably locked in for at least 3 more years, there’s no need to rush Russell, especially next season where the regulations/cars will almost be the same.

This season and next at Williams will be good for George and might be more prepared to make the jump in 2022 with the new set of regulations.


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Biggest pile of nonsense going around the forums and paddock lately. Hamilton was a damn rookie and he nearly won the title. Vettel had one season in a shoddy STR and was challenging for the title in 2009. Ocon beat Perez who would easily be winning races in a Mercedes and competing harder than Bottas for sure for the title. Ocon is not exactly looking shoddy against Ricciardo and with some time definitely feel he could be matching him. Both Ocon and specially Russell are absolutely ready for the big time.

How do you know Hamilton will be at these superhuman levels in all of the 3 years? What if he wins a 8th title and decides to call it a day? You don't need to look too far back to see a WDC achieve something he wanted and pack up when he had just signed a 2 year contract. (Rosberg 2016)
Nobody knows the future. The discussion here is Mercedes being the best prepared possible in the event Hamilton leaves or is simply empty. If Bottas is the answer, you will need a car as dominant as this one in 2022 for him to beat Verstappen and Leclerc. The chap is 6 points ahead of Max in a car miles faster after 4 rounds! It says a lot!

[Phil]

Some thoughts:

Hamilton may think it's time to quit come if he wins an 8th title, but for that, he still needs to win 2020 & 2021. An other thing to consider is that 8 WDCs isn't a whole lot, if you think about that the F1 drivers signed at the top end tend to have 10+ years careers. Hamilton has already been in F1 for 13 seasons. Verstappen has started at a younger age and could well be in F1 for 20 seasons by the time he quits.

If Hamilton wants to ensure his records last a while, it's good for him to extend them as much as possible while also keeping his seat blocked for anyone who might take it in the future (Verstappen). The more he wins, the more he is stalling the new generation. It will happen and once it does, Verstappen, Leclerc or maybe Russel may have a long run of success if at the right team and whatever the dynamic in the sport will be.

I know people like to point to Rosberg and say WHAT IF, but Rosberg hasn't been the norm, but the exception. When has a F1 driver driving for the winning team ever pulled out of an on-going contract and quit? Hamilton may have a lot waiting for him outside F1, but he doesn't have a family and other obligations and everything that is waiting for him outside F1, he will have a life-time to enjoy and no time pressure. So I could well see Hamilton staying in F1 for another 3 years beyond this year. This makes it all the more attractive to retain Bottas on a yearly basis and see what happens.

It's also good to consider that Russel may already be locked in at Williams for next year and you also have Ocon who has a lot to prove at Renault. If you assume Bottas isn't the best driver for that 2nd seat, the question becomes who to replace him with? Mercedes have two current drivers from their young driver program in Ocon and Russel. While they are both locked in at their teams, why not see how that plays out first when determining who to put into that Mercedes alongside Hamilton?

[dans79]

umm.......

https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/53694574

Mercedes F1 boss Toto Wolff said he believed they were "the biggest victim in terms of revenue loss" in the new financial arrangements proposed by F1.

He added they had concerns over "legal, commercial and sporting" issues.

Wolff's comments raise the possibility - however distant - that Mercedes might not continue in F1 beyond this season.

The deadline by which Mercedes has to commit to F1 is 12 August.

The company is committed to F1 and wishes to stay involved - indeed it this week re-signed Valtteri Bottas for the 2021 season - but Wolff's comments betray an unhappiness with the terms on offer.

He said that he had not seen a willingness to compromise from F1.

"If you are prepared to sit at a table and discuss the topics and come to a compromise," Wolff said, "we are close [to an agreement], but I haven't seen that approach."

[caesar1]

Some thoughts:

Hamilton may think it's time to quit come if he wins an 8th title, but for that, he still needs to win 2020 & 2021. An other thing to consider is that 8 WDCs isn't a whole lot, if you think about that the F1 drivers signed at the top end tend to have 10+ years careers. Hamilton has already been in F1 for 13 seasons. Verstappen has started at a younger age and could well be in F1 for 20 seasons by the time he quits.

If Hamilton wants to ensure his records last a while, it's good for him to extend them as much as possible while also keeping his seat blocked for anyone who might take it in the future (Verstappen). The more he wins, the more he is stalling the new generation. It will happen and once it does, Verstappen, Leclerc or maybe Russel may have a long run of success if at the right team and whatever the dynamic in the sport will be.

I know people like to point to Rosberg and say WHAT IF, but Rosberg hasn't been the norm, but the exception. When has a F1 driver driving for the winning team ever pulled out of an on-going contract and quit? Hamilton may have a lot waiting for him outside F1, but he doesn't have a family and other obligations and everything that is waiting for him outside F1, he will have a life-time to enjoy and no time pressure. So I could well see Hamilton staying in F1 for another 3 years beyond this year. This makes it all the more attractive to retain Bottas on a yearly basis and see what happens.

It's also good to consider that Russel may already be locked in at Williams for next year and you also have Ocon who has a lot to prove at Renault. If you assume Bottas isn't the best driver for that 2nd seat, the question becomes who to replace him with? Mercedes have two current drivers from their young driver program in Ocon and Russel. While they are both locked in at their teams, why not see how that plays out first when determining who to put into that Mercedes alongside Hamilton?

I don't think anyone will break Hamiltons records because of the new rules. The budget cap and the performance handicap will make sure we don't get a dominant era like this again.

[Unf]

HAHAHA

Bottas totally outplayed by Mercedeses strategist. Totally. I have no words, no more word.
If you still think that he is not treated as driver no 2 - I'm done.

He started on pole, he defeneded his position and what? And they gave him worse strategy... /facepalm
Done.

[subcritical71]

HAHAHA

Bottas totally outplayed by Mercedeses strategist. Totally. I have no words, no more word.
If you still think that he is not treated as driver no 2 - I'm done.

He started on pole, he defeneded his position and what? And they gave him worse strategy... /facepalm
Done.

You do realize that they let them race, again! Both received the same radio communication, almost word for word. As for strategy, Bottas only made mention that the strategy to Max was not ideal. He could have done the same as Lewis, but then Lewis side would have done something different also, so no matter what you will claim bias that simply isn’t there.

[El Scorchio]

If they were favouring Hamilton they’d have given him the first pit stop first and allowed him to undercut Bottas. Especially as Bottas was clearly holding him up and bringing Verstappen right into play in that first stint. The only difference was Hamilton’s good middle stint where he made the tyres work for longer which helped him at the end. They were caught with their pants down a bit by circumstances today but clearly Realised they had to try and split strategy to have any chance of winning the race. Bottas was never getting by Verstappen.

Also you have no idea who’s call it was to pit and when.

[Big Tea]

HAHAHA

Bottas totally outplayed by Mercedeses strategist. Totally. I have no words, no more word.
If you still think that he is not treated as driver no 2 - I'm done.

He started on pole, he defeneded his position and what? And they gave him worse strategy... /facepalm
Done.

You do realize that they let them race, again! Both received the same radio communication, almost word for word. As for strategy, Bottas only made mention that the strategy to Max was not ideal. He could have done the same as Lewis, but then Lewis side would have done something different also, so no matter what you will claim bias that simply isn’t there.

Its OK, see above.

[Unf]

You do realize that they let them race, again! Both received the same radio communication, almost word for word.

Let them "race" when Bottas had 10 laps older tyres? You are joking, right?

Bottas only made mention that the strategy to Max was not ideal. He could have done the same as Lewis, but then Lewis side would have done something different also, so no matter what you will claim bias that simply isn’t there.

YES. Good point - whenever Mercedes has better and worse option to do, somehow Hamilton has this better one. Coincidence...

[subcritical71]

Let them "race" when Bottas had 10 laps older tyres? You are joking, right?

By that philosophy they shouldn’t have been racing Verstappen either... so all was lost anyway.

Bottas only made mention that the strategy to Max was not ideal. He could have done the same as Lewis, but then Lewis side would have done something different also, so no matter what you will claim bias that simply isn’t there.

YES. Good point - whenever Mercedes has better and worse option to do, somehow Hamilton has this better one. Coincidence...
[/quote]

Well he had the advantage of doing the opposite of Bottas, just because Bottas side chose wrong and it somehow worked out this time for Hamilton doesn’t warrant a tin foil hat parade. Even the broadcasters thought this wasn’t a good strategy until it played out further. I don’t think Hamilton’s choice was as black and white better as you seem to imply. Only in hindsight was it the better strategy and I’m sure they will debrief it and learn something. Hamilton knee doing the same as Bottas was going to get him 3rd. I do believe Hamilton has driven through the blistering before (I can’t remember the race) and the tires came back. Just because they are not designated a 1 and 2 doesn’t mean they are not trying to beat each other and do everything in coop mode.

[GPR-A]

It was unfair of Mercedes to have compromised Bottas. The sole objective was to win the race and they tried both drivers with differing strategies. When it was not possible, they should have asked Lewis to hand over second place to Bottas. He played the game as team wanted and did not deserve to lose that place. Bottas could very well have driven 10 laps longer on those tyres if team would have wanted. So not fair. I am sure Lewis agrees and looking back now, team would also agree in private. Maybe they were too occupied focusing on winning the race that they couldn't get this one right.

[Unf]

Let them "race" when Bottas had 10 laps older tyres? You are joking, right?

By that philosophy they shouldn’t have been racing Verstappen either... so all was lost anyway.

What? You pointed that Mercedes allowed Bottas and Hamilton to race each other and that is the evidence that they don't prefer Lewis as a driver no 1. Beacuse there was no "Valtteri it's James" case.

So again - saying that they are equally treated, cause they were allowed to race each other looks like bad joke while Bottas had 10 laps older tyres and cause of that literally no chance to fight against prince Hamilton.

[El Scorchio]

You do realize that they let them race, again! Both received the same radio communication, almost word for word.

Let them "race" when Bottas had 10 laps older tyres? You are joking, right?

Bottas only made mention that the strategy to Max was not ideal. He could have done the same as Lewis, but then Lewis side would have done something different also, so no matter what you will claim bias that simply isn’t there.

YES. Good point - whenever Mercedes has better and worse option to do, somehow Hamilton has this better one. Coincidence...

Again. If they were favouring Hamilton they’d have pitted him first after the first stint to put him out ahead with Bottas behind him to try and hold up Verstappen. There was a clear opportunity to do that which you would indeed do if you had a designated number one driver. Especially considering Bottas’ pace in the first stint was clearly compromising Hamilton.

You’re looking for things that aren’t there.