lio007 wrote: ↑
Sun Jun 27, 2021 4:11 pm
I don't know what to think about the "lost" points with Checo in 4th, but Toto said a few moments ago on ServusTV that they have stopped development. So maybe it's no poblem to lose some points, because Merc won't catch up. But I stil can't believe there will be no single update on the W12 this year.
It's kind of 2013: Red Bull develops very far into the season which may affect next years car. I hope they don't make the same mistake as in 2013 and then need again 7 years to be on par with Mercedes. Although back in 2014 and the following years it was not all down to the chassis, as we know.
There is no guarantee that, just because someone started early, will surely end up being ahead for a very long time. Barring one time that Mercedes made it big with 2014 regulations, they didn't do anything great in 2017 when regulations changed big time, despite having had a dominant car in 2016 and started work on 2017 before anyone else other than Ferrari. Both Ferrari and Mercedes came out on par. Look at what is going with 2021 for them, despite having started the development way earlier than any other team.
With cost caps in place, nobody can go on development rampage by throwing billions at it to gain huge margin over others, like in the past. The most important thing to make it big in a new set of regulations, is to have a well thought out philosophy of the car. If this year's floor regulations have hurt Mercedes philosophy, then next year's design would be even big a problem with such a big change in regulations. Without the ability to spend hundreds of millions, Mercedes has struggled to bring developments. So there is no guarantee they would make it big next year with such stringent budget restrictions.
Mercedes' biggest advantage was a huge margin they had in PU, which helped them so far. For 2022, that element is out of question for the next few years and even if a team like Red Bull or Ferrari start behind on the chassis deficit, they can catch up if they do a better job of in-season development (assuming the PUs remain on par). So, it's a myth to say, if someone gets it wrong for 2022, it definitely takes 7 years to catchup.