I remember reading that after further analysis they took back that statement and said the wheel would have made it through the first stint, i'll add the source once i find it again.
EDIT: Here's the article, it might just be clickbait garbage though.
Allison spricht von einer "gebrochenen oder fast gebrochenen Felge vorne links". Das entspricht der Ersteinschätzung von Mercedes direkt nach dem Zwischenfall. Erst bei der Nachuntersuchung des Hamilton-Fahrzeugs stellte sich heraus: Die Felge hatte zwar Kampfspuren davongetragen, hätte aber vermutlich den ersten Stint noch überstanden.
Allison speaks of a "broken or almost broken left front rim". This corresponds to the initial assessment by Mercedes directly after the incident. It was only during the follow-up examination of Hamilton's car that it became clear that the rim had sustained battle marks, but would probably have survived the first stint.
No idea whether there's any truth to it, it's one of their typical articles which is loosly based on the debrief but i don't remember him saying anything like that in that video.
I posted those images in the race thread a mere 42 pages ago, they show two ring like parts flying away.
Wouldn't the main difference between Max' RR and Lewis' FL be that the tyre on the RR would be pushing against the 'retaining ring' laterally (what's the proper term for it? outer rim flange?) trying to hop off the rim anyways whilst the LF wouldn't?
It's like holding two angle grinders set to ~2k rpm against each other with opposite rotation and then pushing against the disc of one from the side.