Top 4 Post-TD Estimated Relative Downforce Levels (in 2024 WCC order)
Beam Wings and Rear Wings are left out because they are changed and used to trim the overall downforce level for each car (along with ride height and suspension setup etc.) This can be a bit of a misleading chart, so a few disclaimers first:
estimates are just my own estimates, we have no way to get precise info from all teams
estimates are rated, not relative full downforce levels to each other (e.g I'd give old Sauber floor 1/10 on both ends)
estimated numbers are there to put a figure on the full picture that I will make in this post
Even though McLaren is the standout car this season, I'd not give their floor full 10/10 mark on front end. They have the biggest front wing of the field, and they managed to make it work with their floor - which is a different but equal aerodynamic challenge - and I believe this wing design provides the big part of front-end downforce actually.
Car is very adaptable and has no weakness basically, its strengths are relative to the field each weekend and sometimes other teams manage to make the setup which maximises their own car. As I said before last weekend - they really shouldn't suffer that much from the TD (despite clearly less flexing of the front wing flaps now) and they didn't.
As I've explained several times, Ferrari's concept relies on front floor downforce generation and "trimming" the balance with rear end ride height mostly, to provide good traction when the setup isn't compromised. Because of this, Ferrari have reduced their front wing size (in front view) after 2022 and continued with original 2023 concept after their late-2024 change in Singapore.
Ferrari's biggest problem remains the heavy setup compromise they make in each race, which sometimes manages to work better and sometimes not (like Miami). This setup compromise is always based on higher ride-heights since R03 in Suzuka and sometimes they also have to sacrifice low-speed performance in the race to be able to keep high-speed performance and avoid excessive tyre deg.
If they manage to update their rear suspension properly in Austria or Silverstone, they could be a serious nuisance to McLaren on a regular basis.
RB21 is very much improved since Bahrain tests now and, relative to the field, in a much better state than RB20 was this time last year. In all honesty, Verstappen's penalty in Spain is therefore much worse - he really threw away at least 9 valuable points on Sunday. In my view, they may have a bit more balanced downforce distribution on the floor than McLaren and definitely have smaller front wing in frontal area - which is a pretty good indication of angles and downforce levels too.
The weakness remains low-speed performance and traction to some extent. I don't think their deg and tyre management are a problem anymore, Miami/Imola package greatly improved overall rear end downforce stability and this directly helps to reduce tyre sliding and unstable management during the race.
I am certain they didn't quite nail the setup in Barcelona, because the car should have been a bit closer in Q3 to pole position - just my personal opinion based on every race and development since Bahrain 2022. Having a completely different strategy makes it impossible to compare their race to McLaren.
Mercedes made their best car relative to the front-runners with W16 in this regulation cycle. It started as the 2nd best car overall in the first few rounds. As Ferrari and Red Bull got on top of their setups and updates, Mercedes dropped back in relative performance. I believe they don't have the floor downforce level too far from McLaren, but using smaller wings typically (Barcelona was an outlier so far) reduces their overall downforce levels.
Imola saw the updated TD-compliant front wing and new rear suspension, which was discarded for unknown period after that race. In Monaco they had a lot of trouble during 3 FP sessions and went into Q setup-blind. Russell was happy and not bad in Q1 (with old front wing!), but we were left short of true performance because of PU shutdown in Q2. In Barcelona, despite hotter temperatures (which are nowhere near as bi problem as they were in 2024), I believe they should have been clearly ahead of Ferrari if they weren't hit at all with front wing TD - but they were behind Ferrari in the race.
Canada will give us all the remaining answers on their status, I was surprised they chose to use Monaco-level rear wing in Spain and I consider this a step towards balancing the car having the stiffer rear wing and requiring more rear downforce in high-speed to keep the balance as close to ideal as possible.
estimates are just my own estimates, we have no way to get precise info from all teams
Even though McLaren is the standout car this season, I'd not give their floor full 10/10 mark on front end. They have the biggest front wing of the field, and they managed to make it work with their floor - which is a different but equal aerodynamic challenge - and I believe this wing design provides the big part of front-end downforce actually.
As I've explained several times, Ferrari's concept relies on front floor downforce generation and "trimming" the balance with rear end ride height mostly, to provide good traction when the setup isn't compromised. Because of this, Ferrari have reduced their front wing size (in front view) after 2022 and continued with original 2023 concept after their late-2024 change in Singapore.
RB21 is very much improved since Bahrain tests now and, relative to the field, in a much better state than RB20 was this time last year. In all honesty, Verstappen's penalty in Spain is therefore much worse - he really threw away at least 9 valuable points on Sunday. In my view, they may have a bit more balanced downforce distribution on the floor than McLaren and definitely have smaller front wing in frontal area - which is a pretty good indication of angles and downforce levels too.
Mercedes made their best car relative to the front-runners with W16 in this regulation cycle. It started as the 2nd best car overall in the first few rounds. As Ferrari and Red Bull got on top of their setups and updates, Mercedes dropped back in relative performance. I believe they don't have the floor downforce level too far from McLaren, but using smaller wings typically (Barcelona was an outlier so far) reduces their overall downforce levels.