dren wrote: ↑16 May 2017, 15:42
Vasconia wrote: ↑16 May 2017, 15:26
dren wrote: ↑16 May 2017, 15:17
It'll be Vettel vs Hamilton for pole. Pole wins the race.
Not an adventurous forecast, isn´t it?
Another (semi)wet race would be great but yes, another Vettel-Hamilton fight for the pole for sure. I still have some hope to see the best Kimi. A pole from him would be awesome.
Yeah, I was looking for some possible surprises, but I just don't see any. The Red Bull chassis isn't quite there yet. Kimi looked better last year yet was quite a ways off pole at Monaco. He isn't impressing much this year, so I don't think he'll be in the mix. I'm not convinced Bottas will be anywhere near as strong as Nico was at Monaco. I think Mclaren will be much improved here. Too bad Alonso isn't racing. I don't expect much of Button since he hasn't raced at all in the new cars. Vandoorne still has yet to impress me. Hulkenburg might put in a strong drive to challenge towards the top 5.
Historically this is one of Kimi's worst races, if not his absolute worst. I don't know if he's ever been quoted as not enjoying driving in Monaco, but his results indicate this might be the case. I've included his teammate's results in parentheses.
2001 - 10th (Retired)
2002 - Retired (1st)
2003 - 2nd (7th)
2004 - Retired (Retired)
2005 - 1st (5th)
2006 - Retired (2nd)
2007 - 8th (3rd)
2008 - 9th (3rd)
2009 - 3rd (4th)
2012 - 9th (Retired)
2013 - 10th (Retired)
2014 - 12th (4th)
2015 - 6th (2nd)
2016 - Retired (4th)
Using the current points system, Raikkonen has scored 76 points from 14 attempts, an average of 5.43 points per race. His combined teammates have scored 143 points, averaging 10.21 points per race - almost twice Raikkonen's average.
Looking into this in greater detail, here are Raikkonen's average points per race for all races with reasonable representation (10 races or more), and largely static track layouts. I've ranked them from worst to best.
Monaco - 5.43
Malaysia - 7.64
Monza - 8.14
Barcelona - 8.73
Canada - 9.15
Australia - 9.20
Brazil - 10.08
China - 10.67
Suzuka - 10.67
Belgium - 11.25
Hungary - 11.71
Bahrain - 13.00
Monaco is a massive outlier. If one removes all retirements - self-inflicted or otherwise - the averages are as follows:
Monaco - 7.60
Monza - 9.50
Canada - 9.92
Malaysia - 10.70
Australia - 11.50
China - 11.64
Suzuka - 11.64
Brazil - 11.91
Barcelona - 13.10
Bahrain - 14.18
Hungary - 14.91
Belgium - 15.00
As before, Monaco provides Raikkonen's worst results - on average.
To summarise, I'd be surprised to see Raikkonen on the podium this year.