[ 2020 ] AMG Mercedes F1 Team - Mercedes

[SiLo]

I don't think there is any harm in keeping him in Williams for one more year and then letting Bottas go. Hamilton going for his 8th title alongside a learning Russel would be fantastic no?

[Wynters]

Hamilton joined a championship winning team on debut and drove a car capable of winning it. Why should Russell have to spend more years floundering around for podiums and wins if he can entice a team like RBR? This logic of bedding them in or warming them up is really over rated and devoid of facts.

I think it unlikely that a team could pluck a rookie, drop them into the Mercedes next to Hamilton and that they would beat Hamilton in their opening season (as Hamilton did to Alonso).

Need we look at Perez, Magnusson, Grosjean, Kvyat, Gasly and Albon (there may or may not be more in the current era) as examples of drivers who were put into cars that should've been able to get wins, yet they didn't? I would even argue that the more experienced Verstappen of today would smash Verstappen from his debut RBR season, and today's Hamilton would win 2007.

If more experienced drivers perform better than rookies, then there's an argument that you want to give your rookies experience before dropping them into a car where you may well need them to score the maximum possible points every race, under extreme media scrutiny, and against an outstanding lead driver.

You are also basing everything on the assumption that Mercedes will dominate the sport for another 10 years.

I suspect I wasn't clear, which is my fault. I'm suggesting that there's more chance of Mercedes producing a winning car than any other manufacturer, not that they definitely will. Russell could follow Ricciardo's/Alonso's/Vettel's/etc route of bouncing around trying to get a drive with a team that might produce a championship winning car, but whilst Mercedes are by no means guaranteed to dominate, they seem the safest bet, no?

their YDP has been a big waste/sham. After Hamilton, they've promoted exactly nobody and Wehrlein and Ocon both were ready for the step up but Bottas continues.

I agree it's not what it's advertised to be. They didn't even promote Hamilton.

It depends what a team wants to achieve with their young driver programme. If we assume Wehrlein was ready for the step up, what should Mercedes' plan have been?

Promote Wehrlein in 2016, to replace Rosberg? Then Ocon in 2017, to replace...Hamilton? Then Russell gets promoted in 2019, to replace Wehrlein? Or should they only promote drivers when there is a weaker driver (based on projections from the junior categories) they could replace? In which case, should Hamilton be safe and there would simply a revolving door where Rosberg's seat used to be, with a new driver every other season?

Maybe the YDP exists in case they a) need a driver, b) can utilise them throughout the grid and c) insert better reason than I can come up with?

I don't know.

Would I have taken Bottas in 2017? Probably. I didn't think Wehrlein was ready and Ocon was an unknown quantity. Should Mercedes have gambled their performance on seeing how a very young man performed when dropped into the massive pressure cooker that is the sharp end of the F1 grid? Could they justify that decision to the shareholders? Would they have won the WCC in 2017 if their young driver had imploded or not had what it took to instantly step up to the required level?

Mercedes played it safe. Mercedes continue to win Championships.

[Wynters]

Agree with the first part. If Russell is up to it (like Hamilton was) then he'll just flourish straight away. The best drivers are the ones who can be put in any car and almost immediately understand it and get the maximum possible performance from it. My feeling is we've seen that from Russell over his career so far. I don't think he needs to spend time in a midfield team. It certainly did LeClerc and Verstappen no harm to be fast tracked into high performing equipment and they'v largely handled it very well. Some drivers may crack under pressure but I don't see Russell as one of those.

Verstappen had over a year with Torro Rosso and I suspect 2020 Verstappen dunks 2015 Verstappen. Much as I don't think 2007 Hamilton would take a single race from 2020 Hamilton (excluding reliability over the season).

Naturally talented drivers will do well in a car. Naturally talented drivers who have experience under their belt will do better and have a lower chance of struggling under the pressure. Why not give a driver some of that experience? Why do they need to be promoted immediately? Does that work better for them? For the team?

A different question would be: How much experience do they need to reach touching distance of their full potential?
Another one would be: How long are they willing to wait before the ultimate gamble of 'promote me or I leave'?

If Mercedes are locked in as 'the best car' next year, do they need Bottas in 2021?

[mafeotul]

Agree with the first part. If Russell is up to it (like Hamilton was) then he'll just flourish straight away. The best drivers are the ones who can be put in any car and almost immediately understand it and get the maximum possible performance from it. My feeling is we've seen that from Russell over his career so far. I don't think he needs to spend time in a midfield team. It certainly did LeClerc and Verstappen no harm to be fast tracked into high performing equipment and they'v largely handled it very well. Some drivers may crack under pressure but I don't see Russell as one of those.

Verstappen had over a year with Torro Rosso and I suspect 2020 Verstappen dunks 2015 Verstappen. Much as I don't think 2007 Hamilton would take a single race from 2020 Hamilton (excluding reliability over the season).

Naturally talented drivers will do well in a car. Naturally talented drivers who have experience under their belt will do better and have a lower chance of struggling under the pressure. Why not give a driver some of that experience? Why do they need to be promoted immediately? Does that work better for them? For the team?

A different question would be: How much experience do they need to reach touching distance of their full potential?
Another one would be: How long are they willing to wait before the ultimate gamble of 'promote me or I leave'?

If Mercedes are locked in as 'the best car' next year, do they need Bottas in 2021?

I always like to quote football when referring to examples like this. When Ronaldo played for United, he was under 20, same for Messi. If the quality is there, experience is then added on to create a true great. For that to happen you need stability, financial incentive and a thriving environment. The tools are there, the money is there, the environmental factor is there. Russel in that car would smash the field within a couple of GP’s. Would he beat Hamilton in the same machinery? Mhm. Not straight away. The only three drivers which can Are Vettel, Ricciardo and Max ( i am referring to consistency). But he would be better than Bottas. That’s my gut feeling here.

Let’s not forget Russel was the cream of the crop in the lower “leagues” and comes with outright speed, calmness, tenacity, and a modesty which are all beneficial.

If Toto does not make the move around 2021-2022 than he will shoot himself in the foot.

[El Scorchio]

Agree with the first part. If Russell is up to it (like Hamilton was) then he'll just flourish straight away. The best drivers are the ones who can be put in any car and almost immediately understand it and get the maximum possible performance from it. My feeling is we've seen that from Russell over his career so far. I don't think he needs to spend time in a midfield team. It certainly did LeClerc and Verstappen no harm to be fast tracked into high performing equipment and they'v largely handled it very well. Some drivers may crack under pressure but I don't see Russell as one of those.

Verstappen had over a year with Torro Rosso and I suspect 2020 Verstappen dunks 2015 Verstappen. Much as I don't think 2007 Hamilton would take a single race from 2020 Hamilton (excluding reliability over the season).

Naturally talented drivers will do well in a car. Naturally talented drivers who have experience under their belt will do better and have a lower chance of struggling under the pressure. Why not give a driver some of that experience? Why do they need to be promoted immediately? Does that work better for them? For the team?

A different question would be: How much experience do they need to reach touching distance of their full potential?
Another one would be: How long are they willing to wait before the ultimate gamble of 'promote me or I leave'?

If Mercedes are locked in as 'the best car' next year, do they need Bottas in 2021?

I see what you're saying, but I guess the point I was attempting to make is that did they look out of place or struggle? Has it harmed any of the drivers I named or prevented them developing, or the teams they went to? Absolutely not. If anything it probably helps them progress faster. Particularly Hamilton going up against Alonso. I'm not sure they need to be the complete finished article to get that seat. 'All' Russell would need to be is as good as Bottas while Hamilton is still at the team so there's no WCC drop off. Then he also gets his experience in a relatively low pressure atmosphere (i.e. no expectation to beat Hamilton) so when Hamilton retires and Russell is then really well placed within the Merc setup to succeed.

A midfield team is certainly viable for a few years, but I think in Russell's situation with all the pieces as they are, I'm not sure it's necessary. And where else is he even going to go? Ferrari, AR, Haas- no. RBR, AT- no. That only leaves McLaren, Renault and Racing Point who look pretty set for the next few years if Vettel joins them. Unless you force McLaren to get rid of one of their drivers as a condition of supplying the engine.

To me the logical route seems to be Mercedes in 2021 or 2022. His availability might force their hand with what to do with Bottas.

Just my opinion anyway. If Merc think Russell is the real deal, then that's what I expect them to do. If you're fast enough, you're experienced enough.

[Wynters]

To me the logical route seems to be Mercedes in 2021 or 2022. His availability might force their hand with what to do with Bottas.

I agree. I think they are unlikely to get a better opportunity than next year.

A year of dominance looks already locked in. If the worst a driver will finish is 3rd, I can't think of a better situation to introduce a driver.

[Phil]

The thing is though... is Bottas really THAT bad? He certainly seems to be a quick qualifier. So was Nico. Sure, maybe across the season not as exceptional as Hamilton, but who is? RedBull is probably in a similar dilemma. Max is good. Very good. Riccardo, at least over a lap, just shy as being as good. They've lost him, only to be replaced by 2 drivers that have already tried and proven nothing but that they are even farther away from Max's performance.

I'm sure Mercedes has great data to evaluate Russel, certainly more than what we have. Is he really that good or would he perform no better than Bottas is? A similar case can be made towards Alonso (exceptional driver) who shamed Stoffel, a driver thought to be also exceptional until he was put in the same car? What about Ocon? Supposedly very good too, we'd assume maybe better than Bottas (according to the posts above), but is he really? So far, he doesn't seem to be putting up a big fight vs Daniel Riccardo at the same car. Sure, he's been away from F1 for a year, but it's one of the driver battles I'm very interested to see unfold.

[Wynters]

The thing is though... is Bottas really THAT bad? He certainly seems to be a quick qualifier. So was Nico. Sure, maybe across the season not as exceptional as Hamilton, but who is?

I think questions could be asked of Bottas based on his 2017 (3rd) and 2018 (5th) performances. Although, to be fair, 2017 was pretty tight. Personally, I think he's a 'top-of-the-midfield' driver who comes with character advantages for a top team.

So far, he doesn't seem to be putting up a big fight vs Daniel Riccardo at the same car. Sure, he's been away from F1 for a year, but it's one of the driver battles I'm very interested to see unfold.

Absolutely agree on that battle. It's a shame that the start is tipped in Ricciardo's favour due to the year off and the end will be tipped in Ocon's favour as everyone prepares for Ricciardo moving to a rival.

As to which young driver should get the nod if Bottas is replaced. For me, Ocon has gone up against known quantities, Russell hasn't, and this is further blurred because we've no idea how fast the Williams should be as neither Kubica nor Latifi provide any reference points. Russell could be Jim Clark reborn or he might be Stoffel (good, but not the best). There's no way to know empirically. Mercedes should have a better idea though and, if I had to choose today, I'd be happy to see either in the Silver arrows.

[El Scorchio]

To me the logical route seems to be Mercedes in 2021 or 2022. His availability might force their hand with what to do with Bottas.

I agree. I think they are unlikely to get a better opportunity than next year.

A year of dominance looks already locked in. If the worst a driver will finish is 3rd, I can't think of a better situation to introduce a driver.

Definitely! If they think Russell is that 'can't miss' prospect. My feeling is they can't have been 100% convinced with Ocon or Wehrlein. To revisit and give proper kudos to the point you made though, you are right. Russell's couple of years at Williams will have undoubtedly been of fantastic use for him to get used to everything and for the works team to see 'what he's made of' in F1. I think from the basis of they can definitely elevate him no problem, but coming straight into the sport in the works Mercedes would have been a big ask.

Hamilton must be one of the only few in recent history who has gone straight into a title contending car from outside of top level motorsport?

[GPR-A]

The thing is though... is Bottas really THAT bad? He certainly seems to be a quick qualifier. So was Nico. Sure, maybe across the season not as exceptional as Hamilton, but who is? RedBull is probably in a similar dilemma. Max is good. Very good. Riccardo, at least over a lap, just shy as being as good. They've lost him, only to be replaced by 2 drivers that have already tried and proven nothing but that they are even farther away from Max's performance.

I'm sure Mercedes has great data to evaluate Russel, certainly more than what we have. Is he really that good or would he perform no better than Bottas is? A similar case can be made towards Alonso (exceptional driver) who shamed Stoffel, a driver thought to be also exceptional until he was put in the same car? What about Ocon? Supposedly very good too, we'd assume maybe better than Bottas (according to the posts above), but is he really? So far, he doesn't seem to be putting up a big fight vs Daniel Riccardo at the same car. Sure, he's been away from F1 for a year, but it's one of the driver battles I'm very interested to see unfold.

On Max and Daniel part, when Max joined Red Bull in 2016, the first time Max outqualified Ric was in 5th qualifying together. Over the 17 qualifying in 2016, Max only outqualified Ric 6 times. You can easily term that as poor record. So Ocon has already outqualified Ric in his second qualifying, under wet conditions. Ocon has already beaten Perez in qualifying battle in 2018. Too early to judge him against Ric.

Russell seems to be a very intelligent driver and has been making good progress in terms of finding speed with weak machinery. Without having a point of reference for gaining speed, like a faster team mate. He demonstrated it with virtual racing series too, where initially he was nowhere, but was quickly up to speed to then win consecutive races. He might not go out there and beat Lewis from the get go, but with his prowess, he might just learn the tricks faster and might just beat Lewis. Over one lap, Lewis can't certainly be as fast as he was in his youth, but still the most potent qualifier out there. Yet, Bottas having studied him over the past few seasons, is running close and on occasions beating him in qualifying. If Russell can get up to speed faster than Bottas, which he might, then his chances might be better at winning races against Lewis.

Besides, Mercedes can't afford to put someone like Russell when Lewis quits. They need to test Russell against Lewis as a bench mark to know if he is on par, less or more than Lewis in terms of pure speed. Then they can decide if they need to desperately pursue Max or Leclerc, who are anyway locked in a long term contract with their respective teams. If Russell proves to be lethal against Lewis, they don't have to go after anyone else when Lewis retires and they can settle for a good No.2 from the other available drivers on the grid.

[SAEED]

History doesn't always mean it tells the future but it does suggest that while Mercedes has been making beasts on the track, their YDP has been a big waste/sham. After Hamilton, they've promoted exactly nobody and Wehrlein and Ocon both were ready for the step up but Bottas continues.

I'm not sure the "competition" is much better in what their YDP achieves. RedBull has effectively put all their eggs in Max's basket - the result being that they lost Daniel Riccardo. Along the way, they have alienated drivers with huge prospects (-> Buemi, Alguarsuari), one of which has continued to be very successful.

If they lose Max, good luck with their remaining drivers, as none of them seem up to the job of stepping up. There's also the fact that every year, F2 produces a new champion and new talent, but F1 drivers generally tend to stay a couple of years and have long careers (10+ years). With limited seats and drives, it can't add up.

Mercedes also doesn't have a second team (like RedBull has). All they can do is make it more lucrative for their customer teams to take their junior drivers. Some might be willing to, not all might want to. Torro-Rosso, I mean Alpha Tauri doesn't have a choice.

Same applies to Ferrari somewhat. Who is their next young prospect after Leclerc? Giovinazzi?

From Ferrari Driver Academy there are 5 drivers contesting this year's F2. 3/4 of them seem to be capable/ near capable. If they all perform well, Ferrari will have trouble finding them space in F1. Of them, Robert Shwartzmann has a great prospect of going the Leclerc/Russell route by winning GP3/F3-F2 back to back. He has speed along with calmness to see the bigger picture.

[dans79]

Some news very relevant to the conversation!

https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/53602928

Hamilton said the enforced break caused by the coronavirus lockdown this year had refreshed him and potentially lengthened the time he could stay in F1.

“The Covid lockdown, while it was a negative in many, many ways, it gave me a lot of life and energy to focus on some other things and that bit of time off was really a bit of breathing space,” said Hamilton.

“It has given me a renewed bit of energy to perhaps go longer.

“Also, we are in period of time when there is not another driver from my background coming at the moment and I am conscious of that.

“I want to earn my position and I still feel like every year I come back it’s not a given just because I have world championships under my belt.

"You have to earn the right to be here in terms of how you perform. My goal is to continue to deliver for as long as I can, so I see myself going for at least another three years.”

[adrianjordan]

Three years, so equal Schumacher this year, beat him next year and win under the new regs whilst helping to bed in a replacement at Merc...??

I just don't see Lewis going to any other team at this point. I feel we'll either see an announcement of a new contract this weekend at Silverstone or in Germany whenever that race is.

With this press release, my money is on this weekend.

[El Scorchio]

Three years, so equal Schumacher this year, beat him next year and win under the new regs whilst helping to bed in a replacement at Merc...??

I just don't see Lewis going to any other team at this point. I feel we'll either see an announcement of a new contract this weekend at Silverstone or in Germany whenever that race is.

With this press release, my money is on this weekend.

Agree. If he wants to go for records then he should stay. He’d be mad to move to Ferrari at the moment If he wants that. That’s the only place I’d see him going though, just for completeness or to satisfy a need/ambition.

Maybe if they indulge him they’ll let an old man drive round for a season as LeClercs team mate in 2023 or something! Can’t see that happening though. Doesn’t really make sense.

[adrianjordan]

Three years, so equal Schumacher this year, beat him next year and win under the new regs whilst helping to bed in a replacement at Merc...??

I just don't see Lewis going to any other team at this point. I feel we'll either see an announcement of a new contract this weekend at Silverstone or in Germany whenever that race is.

With this press release, my money is on this weekend.

Agree. If he wants to go for records then he should stay. He’d be mad to move to Ferrari at the moment If he wants that. That’s the only place I’d see him going though, just for completeness or to satisfy a need/ambition.

Maybe if they indulge him they’ll let an old man drive round for a season as LeClercs team mate in 2023 or something! Can’t see that happening though. Doesn’t really make sense.

Lewis has said many times that Ferrari holds no appeal for him.

Why would it? It's in Italy and hasn't exactly shown itself to be a stable team over the last decade!!