STRATEGY: Pirelli predicts strategic battle in Hungary as one-stop and two-stop options remain open

Lando Norris secured pole position for the Hungarian Grand Prix, but according to Pirelli, Sunday's race could be decided by strategy rather than outright pace, with both one-stop and two-stop approaches expected to remain competitive around the Hungaroring.

The McLaren driver claimed pole with a final qualifying lap of 1:17.207, narrowly beating Lewis Hamilton by 0.012 seconds, while Charles Leclerc completed the top three. Norris' qualifying performance came after he had also topped the final practice session, where the Soft tyre was the dominant choice among the leading teams.

The tyre strategies used during qualifying could play an important role in the race. While most teams focused exclusively on the Soft compound, Ferrari took a different approach by using the Medium tyre during the opening phase of qualifying. Hamilton completed three laps on the C4 compound, while Leclerc completed eight laps before switching to the Soft tyre for their final attempts.

Norris, meanwhile, committed fully to the Soft compound, using four sets of C5 tyres throughout qualifying to secure his first pole position of the season.

However, Pirelli Motorsport Director Dario Marrafuschi believes the race itself remains difficult to predict, with simulations showing almost no difference in total race time between one-stop and two-stop strategies.

"Our simulations show no difference in overall race time between a one-stop and a two-stop strategy for the Hungarian Grand Prix," Marrafuschi explained.

"Degradation, which has been higher than expected, has effectively brought the two strategic options into line, allowing teams to evaluate different scenarios depending on the new sets they have preserved up to this point."

The Medium tyre is expected to be the preferred starting compound for many drivers, particularly those starting outside the top positions who have preserved fresh sets. Teams will then have to decide whether to complete the race on the Hard compound or introduce an additional stop.

"In both FP3 and qualifying, as was already the case during yesterday's first two sessions, some teams followed a different approach from the rest by using an additional set of Medium tyres," Marrafuschi said.

"The yellow-banded tyre is still likely to be the preferred compound for the start. Those opting for a one-stop strategy could then complete the race on the Hard compound, with the pit stop window falling between laps 26 and 32."

For teams choosing a two-stop strategy, the first stop is expected earlier, with a second visit to the pits later in the race. However, tyre availability could limit the options for some teams.

"In the case of a two-stop strategy, however, given that only two teams still have two new sets of C4s available, it is more likely that the final stints will be run on the Hard compound, with pit stop windows between laps 16 and 22 for the first stop and laps 40 and 46 for the second."

The Hungaroring's layout, with limited overtaking opportunities, is expected to encourage teams to prioritise track position and avoid unnecessary stops. The difficulty of passing could make the undercut particularly valuable, while drivers who can create a gap may have more freedom to attempt alternative strategies.

"As highlighted yesterday, traffic and the difficulty of overtaking remain key factors and could encourage several teams to favour a one-stop approach," Marrafuschi added.

Despite the expected preference for Medium-to-Hard strategies, Pirelli does not rule out the Soft tyre playing a role during the race. The C5 compound has shown strong grip levels and acceptable durability, potentially allowing teams to exploit different race scenarios.

"The use of the Soft tyre cannot be ruled out either, as it has demonstrated good levels of grip and sufficient durability."

Pirelli estimates that alternative combinations such as Soft-Hard-Medium and Medium-Hard-Soft are around ten seconds slower overall, but they could still become viable for teams needing to attack or react to changing circumstances.

"Drivers able to build a gap over their rivals may be able to make an additional stop without the risk of losing position, while others could use the undercut to their advantage."

"The situation therefore remains open and it would not be surprising to see different strategies even between drivers from the same team."